A decade after the UK stumbled into a rushed public vote that split the nation and unleashed turmoil, a advisory emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Policymakers and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar may happen with a national vote on a united Ireland, initiating upheavals for which no one is equipped.
That conveys the caution from two respected writers from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Institutions Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a possibly fraught and seismic public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can gain traction swiftly," O’Toole stated. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our islands remains highly fragile."
Released Volume Aims to Provoke Discussion
The team have examined the governmental, economic and societal rationales for any structural alteration in a publication, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to provoke discussion on the issue with a tour of lectures that will lead them to Westminster early next month.
"What haunts everyone, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We should prevent a referendum on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose implications have remained undefined because then you find yourself with an extraordinarily divided society where the losing side are not reconciled to losing and the those successful don't know precisely what it is that they have gained."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a referendum on Irish unity if it is indicated that a most voters would approve.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists claim that moment is approaching, and a group called pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions play down the prospect, leaving it unclear when or if there will be a referendum.
Lack of Informed Dialogue
Partisan language supporting and opposing unification has hidden the absence of substantive discussion, stated the journalist.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the concept but the actual thinking which may surpass that to realise it has largely not occurred. A lot has gone on in universities but very few government figures or campaigners are willing to participate with the basics. For instance, which kind of country should be desired? Unitary? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the book, no writer endorses unity or the status quo. Each authors two pieces that strive for neutrality in presenting the rationale for a unified Ireland and the argument opposing it, assembling economic and societal data, past examples and constitutional models.
Arguments range over identity markers, duties, medical care, pensions, public liabilities and the risk of loyalist violence. The objective is to educate and stimulate discussion.
"There's huge interest in the topic but there has not yet occurred a discussion," stated the writer. "Debate implies an recognition of the notion that there may exist good arguments on either side."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where voters say they support unity but reject paying higher taxes or implementing a different emblem to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British identity.
"Authorities in Dublin must establish what the proposal from nationalist groups is other than just saying: 'We seek a united Ireland and we love you'," stated O’Toole.
Likelihood of Referendum
The journalist considers a national vote in his era is likely and that it could happen abruptly. "There might be just a irresponsible or a poor or a negligent government minister who states: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have credible, justified points, he commented. "Somebody will succeed on this issue and somebody will eventually be defeated but each side has has important lessons to gain from the alternative positions."
Call for More Extensive Dialogue
Westminster needed to join the debate, urged the analyst. "This concerns Britain. It's a UK matter equally as it is an Irish matter."